A recent analysis published by CBC News and authored by Georgie Smyth, examined the recent trend of reduced fatalities due to opioid-linked overdoses in Canada and the U.S., as well as concerns raised by health experts regarding recent aggressive enforcement policies targeting fentanyl production and trafficking.
According to data published by Health Canada in March, overdose deaths in 2024 decreased by 12% across Canada compared to the previous 12 months. This trend has been even more pronounced in the U.S., with declines up to 45% in opioid-related overdose deaths recorded in North Carolina and other states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
In recent months, the Canadian federal government has committed to new border measures, which were originally designed to avoid U.S. tariff threats, despite doubts about their effectiveness. Notably, less than one kilogram of fentanyl has been seized at the U.S.-Canada border since January 2025. Moreover, the $1.3-billion Canada Border Plan includes efforts to “stop the production and trafficking of illegal fentanyl” as part of its broader goal to enhance border security.
Health experts such as Nabarun Dasgupta, a senior scientist at the University of North Carolina’s Opioid Data Lab have raised concerns over fentanyl crackdowns, since they could unintentionally make the drug supply more dangerous. Specifically, concerns have been voiced due to the potential increased toxicity of the disrupted supply chain and unpredictable changes in the illegal drug market amid the sudden aggressive measures to curb fentanyl trafficking. In addition, health experts have expressed concerns over the crackdowns leading to undoing the progress in harm reduction implementation during the recent years, and disruption of the fentanyl supply without the necessary support for affected individuals.
Dr. Dasgupta discussed three main theories to explain the recent decline in overdose deaths: changes in the drug supply, changes in the user population, and the positive impact of interventions. He also noted that the effects of the additional enforcement on fentanyl trafficking and production may not be immediately obvious, since it will take time to collect data on an unregulated drug supply, and if the supply does start to change, it will take several weeks for a pattern to emerge.
In her interview with CBC News, Sarah Blyth, executive director of the Overdose Prevention Society (OPS), said that the illicit drug supply is always evolving. She highlighted the fact that the unpredictability of ingredients is what makes accessing this uncontrolled supply so dangerous. “If it gets hard to get fentanyl, there will be other drugs that flood the market,” she said. “What’s the next drug? Is it carfentanil? Then we’re worse off.”
Moreover, Blyth has remained sceptical of a permanent improvement in the long-running drug crisis, since she said she personally knows people who have recently died from the supply. “No one wants to see anymore people dying,” Blyth said. “I want to see people living the best life that they can.”
